In the past few weeks, there has been unrest in various parts of Uganda. The opposition competing to take control of political power in the country have organised under an umbrella group called Activists for Change (A4C) to 'force the NRM government to do something' about spiking prices of fuel and food in the country. The high prices, they say, are making life unbearable for the common Ugandan. At the head of this A4C are Dr Kiiza Besigye, Olara Otunnu and Norbert Mao, among others.
The three only a couple of months ago lost to President Yoweri Museveni, who is preparing to start his fourth term as Uganda's chief executive on the 12th of May, 2011. The former three performed very poorly barely getting 30% of the vote cast on 18th February. They dismissed the election as a sham and refused to recognise the winner as the elected leader of the country. They vowed to put pressure on the new government by open civil rebellion therefore making Uganda ungovernable. Both Otunnu and Mao barely managed to get 3% of the vote (the two of them combined!).
The excuse of high prices, which are a worldwide phenomenon, is smart. That A4C is carrying out the losers' threat of making Uganda ungovernable just before the inauguration of President Museveni is very strategic. Psychologically, there is barely a government at the moment. Uganda, in the deep ends of our minds, is in a transitional state. If Uganda is made ungovernable now, the motivation to defend President Museveni is not high enough for the idea to be vigorously resisted. However, once the president has been sworn in with the full provisions of the country's constitution, it becomes harder to whip up the morale of their own presently galvanised urbanite support base. You should see the opposition's supporters on Twitter and Facebook. Boy, are they all fired up! After a disappointing election loss, this is the wind they needed in the wings.
In addition, the three opposition politicians, who resisted joining forces against President Museveni before the elections, are fighting to remain relevant to their respective parties. Besigye has headed the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) for three terms, while Otunnu and Mao head the oldest parties in Uganda: the Uganda People's Congress (UPC) and Democratic Party (DP), respectively. Having lost miserably in the elections, they faced the next five years without national elective offices, and very low levels of self-esteem. None of their parliamentary party members will resign their seat in favour of the head party heads. In addition to being in the political wilderness, they feel threatened by the clout their party MPs will have, putting them in the position to bump them out completely. Besigye, Otunnu and Mao, who campaigned against each other are now fighting another common enemy: their respective party vultures.
The high-handed response by the government security forces is regrettable. Lives, livelihoods and property have been lost unnecessarily. The election losers' threat to make Uganda ungovernable is being played out with the target being to prevent President Museveni's inauguration. I feel that the size of the force applied is also with the awareness of the psychology surrounding that event. After the inauguration, the gas for civil disobedience will be deflated. There is also the prospect of a major public relations coup for President Museveni in the cabinet he will unveil in the next few days. Let's wait and see.
(This is the first posting on this blog. If I've sounded long-winded, please excuse me.)
The three only a couple of months ago lost to President Yoweri Museveni, who is preparing to start his fourth term as Uganda's chief executive on the 12th of May, 2011. The former three performed very poorly barely getting 30% of the vote cast on 18th February. They dismissed the election as a sham and refused to recognise the winner as the elected leader of the country. They vowed to put pressure on the new government by open civil rebellion therefore making Uganda ungovernable. Both Otunnu and Mao barely managed to get 3% of the vote (the two of them combined!).
The excuse of high prices, which are a worldwide phenomenon, is smart. That A4C is carrying out the losers' threat of making Uganda ungovernable just before the inauguration of President Museveni is very strategic. Psychologically, there is barely a government at the moment. Uganda, in the deep ends of our minds, is in a transitional state. If Uganda is made ungovernable now, the motivation to defend President Museveni is not high enough for the idea to be vigorously resisted. However, once the president has been sworn in with the full provisions of the country's constitution, it becomes harder to whip up the morale of their own presently galvanised urbanite support base. You should see the opposition's supporters on Twitter and Facebook. Boy, are they all fired up! After a disappointing election loss, this is the wind they needed in the wings.
In addition, the three opposition politicians, who resisted joining forces against President Museveni before the elections, are fighting to remain relevant to their respective parties. Besigye has headed the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) for three terms, while Otunnu and Mao head the oldest parties in Uganda: the Uganda People's Congress (UPC) and Democratic Party (DP), respectively. Having lost miserably in the elections, they faced the next five years without national elective offices, and very low levels of self-esteem. None of their parliamentary party members will resign their seat in favour of the head party heads. In addition to being in the political wilderness, they feel threatened by the clout their party MPs will have, putting them in the position to bump them out completely. Besigye, Otunnu and Mao, who campaigned against each other are now fighting another common enemy: their respective party vultures.
The high-handed response by the government security forces is regrettable. Lives, livelihoods and property have been lost unnecessarily. The election losers' threat to make Uganda ungovernable is being played out with the target being to prevent President Museveni's inauguration. I feel that the size of the force applied is also with the awareness of the psychology surrounding that event. After the inauguration, the gas for civil disobedience will be deflated. There is also the prospect of a major public relations coup for President Museveni in the cabinet he will unveil in the next few days. Let's wait and see.
(This is the first posting on this blog. If I've sounded long-winded, please excuse me.)
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